European freight: Weak demand and volatility become the "new normal" in 2026

The latest European Road Freight Benchmark report by the IRU, Upply and Transport Intelligence, reports that although European freight volumes have recovered slightly from the lows of 2025, weak and uneven manufacturing and industrial output across Europe is restricting spot rate increases in the market. Report forecasts a weak 0.6% increase in road transport demand during 2026.

By comparison, a separate analysis by ING, reports that European road transport demand is expected to grow slightly more, by around 1% in 2026, with large differences between countries, freight segments and fleet profiles. Volatility, the report notes, is becoming part of a “new normal” for the sector.

Separately, Germany and Poland’s manufacturing sectors contracted in 2025, however they are showing signs of recovery in January, reports Trans. Info with the welcome news that the UK export market is showing some surprising signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.8 in January which is a seventeen-month high.

Some common themes are emerging across the eurozone and the UK markets in terms of cost pressures, with most countries showing reductions in the number of people employed however there is a growing shortage of truck drivers in Europe, currently reported as 440,000 which is up 18,000 on the previous year. Shortages remain particularly acute in Eastern Europe, Spain and Germany, this structural constraint continues to limit transport capacity even as demand remains subdued.

Although diesel prices declined in 2025, cost pressure persisted. The benchmark identifies road tolls as an increasingly important component of operating costs. In Austria and Hungary, toll charges per kilometre now exceed fuel costs. Further increases are expected in 2026 as more countries align with the Eurovignette directive.European Road haulage market remains highly fragmented, dominated by small and medium-sized operators alongside a limited number of large international players. ING expects consolidation to continue as smaller companies face increasing pressure from investment requirements related to digitalisation, sustainability and regulatory compliance.

Some well-known UK transport operators have come under EU ownership during 2025, and several US logistics companies are involved in the UK & EU transport markets however its very rare for an EU company to expand into the USA. Bucking this trend is the HayWay Group, who have formally entered the US long haul market with the purchase of 80 Volvo trucks working between California and New York. According to Volvo Trucks North America, this is the groups first roll out to formally start its expansion in the US. HayWay states that this move heralds the start of its long-term growth plans in the US, and plans to grow the fleet to 14,000 trucks by 2029, pursuing a fleet strategy based on long term cooperation with a single truck manufacturer, giving them operational standardisation across both EU & US markets.